On the good news front, we are seeing early indicators of inflation roll over in real-time, and the Federal Reserve just signaled that they will slow the pace of rate hikes to monitor the lagging effects rate hikes have to the economy. Reading between the lines, I speculate that this means a pause is nearing, which will be followed ultimately a few to several months later by rate cuts as we battle a likely rise in unemployment and a weaker economy. It truly feels like there is light at the end of the tunnel in the Fed’s fight against inflation.
If what I think is going to happen actually happens, it’s a mixed bag for apartment investors. The good part is that borrowers will get a ton of relief with interest rates going down, which will result in causing rate cap costs to fall dramatically and making new loans size much better, in particular for the agencies. The bad part is that you would expect delinquency to rise and rents to stagnate or fall for a period of time. If history holds, that will be most pronounced in the workforce housing space.
Couple my expected decline in workforce housing fundamentals with a powder keg filled with the inexperienced, undercapitalized sponsors that are over-leveraged, there must be problems in this space. I think the spark that will make the powder keg explode will be the 18-24 month Debt Yield test all the debt fund lenders will test for. So, look to debt fund deals done in 2020 and 2021 as the clock runs out on those deals. When those sponsors can’t re-margin the loans or refinance out, they’ll be forced to sell in a distressed scenario. That’s what I believe is going to be the opportunity we have in 2023, likely in Q3 or later, as everyone works through the property-level liquidity as the rate hikes have been an incremental process since March 2022.
The wild card that is harder for me to handicap is the fact that a lot of the debt fund lenders were large multifamily owners such as Related or Starwood. They might be savvy & depending on the scope of problems capitalized enough where they will be able to take the properties back and work them out themselves vs. selling into the market at whatever price it takes to clear it off the books like a bank would. If that happens in large scale, it mutes the level of opportunity I see coming at this space.
This is what I expect to happen in 2023, and I hope to channel my inner Marty McFly and go back in time to the 80’s to take advantage of this dislocation. I am sure happy that we will be basically a 3-to-1 net seller this year and have raised a bunch of cash through sales for us and our investors in 2022.
To be clear, I do not think this is the Great Recession of 2008 all over again. The scope of the problem isn’t nearly as widespread as it was then. The banks, Life Co’s, and agencies all had solid underwriting fundamentals for their loans. I believe for multifamily, this is largely concentrated in the workforce housing deals with debt fund loans put on in 2020 and 2021 of which there were a lot of them. The owners of workforce housing deals with 7-10 year agency loans should largely be fine and, if they choose to, can ride this out. So, overall this is a subset of the multifamily space I think will be most impacted.
I also don’t think that this opportunity will be around for too long -- probably somewhere between 6 to 12 months of opportunity before the market clears these deals out and we are more or less back to normal. Why is that? Well, there’s a ton of capital on the sidelines in general waiting to be deployed. To me, interest rates appear close to topping out with inflation likely rolling over and history tells us that the Federal Reserve on average cuts rates 9 months after the last hike, which means the first rate cut appears to be likely in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024. Moreover, we have the agencies to provide liquidity to the multifamily industry that will put a floor on how bad this can get which you don’t have in office, industrial, or retail property types. Finally, the 4 major markets in Texas need 650,000 more units to keep up with the projected demand between now and 2035, so the fundamentals will still play a big role in investor appetite once the capital market issues resolve themselves.
In the meantime, I am getting prepared as much as we can to be ready to capitalize on this upcoming opportunity.