WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? . . .Reading the market with history as my guide, and if Wednesday was the last hike of this cycle, Fed Funds have peaked. It is now just a matter of time before we get some significant relief on our current floating-rate loans. The relief will come both in the form of monthly interest expenses dropping as well as the price of the replacement rate caps declining, the latter of which we must purchase several in Q4 2023 on many of our properties. If I am right, most of the money we have been diverting the past several months to hold in escrow to ensure we had sufficient funds to repurchase the rate caps upon expiration should not be needed. This is not to say we won’t have to address potential issues within our tenant base in the face of potentially elevated unemployment… However, this will be a huge pressure release for my company, SPI Advisory, as well as many other multifamily owners.
Furthermore, with the regional banks pulling back credit availability dramatically that will lead to a hole in new multifamily supply in 2025 and 2026. Due to the limited new supply, I predict that those two years will be among the highest for rent growth I will see in my lifetime. I am very optimistic that 2025 and 2026 will produce phenomenal returns for SPI Advisory and our investors. We will do our best to position ourselves ahead of time to take advantage of this upcoming opportunity.
It's volatile out there and current inflation readings are still elevated (even though I personally think they’ll be coming down quite quickly) so there’s likely some more choppiness to come. However, I do feel it’s likely that Fed Funds -- and by extension SOFR -- has peaked and we are more likely to get relief on that front before the end of the year. Again, I reserve the right to be wrong, but that is how I view the world today.